With the recent announcement that the 2021 Canadian Olympic Trials will be run as an invitational meet, with only 20 swimmers and two timed final heats per event, it begs the question: does this close the door on someone who had the potential to come out of nowhere and make push for an Olympic berth?
While there have been several athletes seeded outside of the top-three, and even top-five, to qualify for the Canadian team at the last two Trials, no one has come from anywhere near the 20th seed to punch their ticket to the Games.
However, one factor that does need to be considered was that several athletes didn’t have the opportunity to train and race optimally throughout 2020, meaning swimmers essentially have had a two-year window to improve since last posting long course times.
Below, find the entire 2012 and 2016 Canadian Olympic teams, along with their seeds in each respective race coming into the meet.
Thanks to fellow Canuck Ben Dornan for providing the tables.
2012 Canadian Olympic Team
Men
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Brent Hayden | 50 m freestyle | 1 |
| 100 m freestyle | 1 | |
| Blake Worsley | 200 m freestyle | 6 |
| Ryan Cochrane | 400 m freestyle | 1 |
| 1500 m freestyle | 1 | |
| Charles Francis | 100 m backstroke | 1 |
| Tobias Oriwol | 200 m backstroke | 1 |
| Scott Dickens | 100 m breaststroke | 1 |
| 200 m breaststroke | 2 | |
| Joe Bartoch | 100 m butterfly | 1 |
| David Sharpe | 200 m butterfly | 6 |
| Andrew Ford | 200 m individual medley | 1 |
| Alec Page | 400 m individual medley | 3 |
| Thomas Gossland |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
9 |
| Brent Hayden | 1 | |
| Richard Hortness | 3 | |
| Colin Russell | 2 | |
| Tobias Oriwol |
4 × 200 m freestyle relay
|
4 |
| Alec Page | Didn’t swim it at trials | |
| Colin Russell | 2 | |
| Blake Worsley | 6 | |
| Joe Bartoch |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
1 |
| Scott Dickens | 1 | |
| Charles Francis | 1 | |
| Brent Hayden | 1 |
Individually, both Blake Worsley and David Sharpe pulled off victories coming from the sixth seed, though Sharpe’s win in the final was particularly memorable due to the fact that he swimming in the outside lane after qualifying eighth in prelims. Sharpe swam 1.42 seconds faster in the final than his best time coming into the meet, while Worsley added a second in a relatively weak field.
Tommy Gossland jumped up from ninth to make the 400 free relay.
Women
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Victoria Poon | 50 m freestyle | 2 |
| Julia Wilkinson | 100 m freestyle | 2 |
| Samantha Cheverton | 200 m freestyle | 2 |
| Barbara Jardin | 200 m freestyle | 1 |
| Savannah King | 400 m freestyle | 5 |
| Brittany MacLean | 400 m freestyle | 4 |
| Savannah King | 800 m freestyle | 3 |
| Alexa Komarnycky | 800 m freestyle | 2 |
| Sinead Russell | 100 m backstroke | 1 |
| Julia Wilkinson | 100 m backstroke | 1 |
| Hilary Caldwell | 200 m backstroke | 2 |
| Sinead Russell | 200 m backstroke | 1 |
| Jillian Tyler | 100 m breaststroke | 1 |
| Tera van Beilen | 100 m breaststroke | 5 |
| Martha McCabe | 200 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Tera van Beilen | 200 m breaststroke | 3 |
| Katerine Savard | 100 m butterfly | 1 |
| Audrey Lacroix | 200 m butterfly | 1 |
| Katerine Savard | 200 m butterfly | 2 |
| Erica Morningstar | 200 m individual medley | 1 |
| Stephanie Horner | 400 m individual medley | 2 |
| Samantha Cheverton |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
10 |
| Heather MacLean | 11 | |
| Victoria Poon | 1 | |
| Julia Wilkinson | 2 | |
| Samantha Cheverton |
4 × 200 m freestyle relay
|
2 |
| Barbara Jardin | 1 | |
| Brittany MacLean | 3 | |
| Amanda Reason | 8 | |
| Victoria Poon |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
Didn’t swim it at trials |
| Sinead Russell | 1 | |
| Katerine Savard | 1 | |
| Jillian Tyler | 1 | |
| Tera van Beilen | 5 | |
| Julia Wilkinson | 1 |
Both Savannah King and Tera van Beilen moved up from the fifth seed to earn individual berths, while Samantha Cheverton and Heather MacLean did so from the double digits in the 400 free relay. King’s swim was notably a personal best by three seconds, one she never approached again, while van Beilen also made a significant drop to move up three spots (and would come close to matching it at the Olympics, earning her a semi-final swim-off with Alia Atkinson).
2016 Canadian Olympic Team
Men
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Santo Condorelli | 50 m freestyle | 1 |
| Yuri Kisil | 50 m freestyle | 4 |
| Santo Condorelli | 100 m freestyle | 1 |
| Yuri Kisil | 100 m freestyle | 2 |
| Ryan Cochrane | 400 m freestyle | 1 |
| 1500 m freestyle | 1 | |
| Javier Acevedo | 100 m backstroke | 2 |
| Jason Block | 100 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Ashton Baumann | 200 m breaststroke | 5 |
| Santo Condorelli | 100 m butterfly | 1 |
| Santo Condorelli |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
1 |
| Yuri Kisil | 2 | |
| Markus Thormeyer | 6 | |
| Evan van Moerkerke | 4 | |
| Javier Acevedo |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
2 |
| Jason Block | 2 | |
| Mackenzie Darragh | 6 | |
| Yuri Kisil | 2 |
The biggest climber for the men’s team in 2016 was Ashton Baumann, son of two-time Olympic gold medalist Alex Baumann, who seemingly came out of nowhere to dominate the 200 breast at Trials. Baumann dropped a 2:10.69 to win the event by two and a half seconds, and was close to three seconds under his previous best time. Despite the massive time drops, he still only moved up from fifth to first.
Yuri Kisil dropped three-tenths to go from fourth to first in the 50 free, which is a pretty significant amount for the distance.
Women
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Chantal Van Landeghem | 50 m freestyle | 1 |
| Michelle Williams | 50 m freestyle | 2 |
| Penny Oleksiak | 100 m freestyle | 1 |
| Chantal Van Landeghem | 100 m freestyle | 4 |
| Brittany MacLean | 200 m freestyle | 10 |
| Katerine Savard | 200 m freestyle | 3 |
| Brittany MacLean | 400 m freestyle | 3 |
| Emily Overholt | 400 m freestyle | 1 |
| Brittany MacLean | 800 m freestyle | 1 |
| Dominique Bouchard | 100 m backstroke | 2 |
| Kylie Masse | 100 m backstroke | 1 |
| Dominique Bouchard | 200 m backstroke | 2 |
| Hilary Caldwell | 200 m backstroke | 1 |
| Rachel Nicol | 100 m breaststroke | 1 |
| Kierra Smith | 100 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Martha McCabe | 200 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Kierra Smith | 200 m breaststroke | 1 |
| Penny Oleksiak | 100 m butterfly | 3 |
| Noemie Thomas | 100 m butterfly | 2 |
| Audrey Lacroix | 200 m butterfly | 1 |
| Sydney Pickrem | 200 m individual medley | 1 |
| Erika Seltenreich-Hodgson | 200 m individual medley | 3 |
| Emily Overholt | 400 m individual medley | 1 |
| Sydney Pickrem | 400 m individual medley | 2 |
| Sandrine Mainville |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
2 |
| Penny Oleksiak | 5 | |
| Chantal Van Landeghem | 1 | |
| Taylor Ruck | 3 | |
| Michelle Williams[a] | 2 | |
| Brittany MacLean |
4 × 200 m freestyle relay
|
10 |
| Penny Oleksiak | 7 | |
| Katerine Savard | 3 | |
| Taylor Ruck | 2 | |
| Kennedy Goss[a] | 4 | |
| Emily Overholt[a] | 1 | |
| Kylie Masse |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
1 |
| Rachel Nicol | 1 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | 3 | |
| Taylor Ruck | 3 | |
| Noemie Thomas | 2 | |
| Chantal van Landeghem | 1 |
The only swimmer to qualify for the team individually after being seeded 10th or worse is Brittany MacLean, who entered the 2016 Trials ranked 10th in the women’s 200 free.
This one is an anomaly more than anything, as MacLean had an injury-plagued 2015 year and hardly raced at all. She was also coming off a standout NCAA Championship performance with Georgia right before the 2016 Trials, which included winning the 200 free individually and anchoring the Bulldogs to victory with the field’s fastest split in the 800 free relay.
MacLean went on to win the event in a time of 1:56.94, breaking the super-suited national record of 1:56.97 held by Genevieve Saumur.
Penny Oleksiak also moved up from seventh to qualify for the Games in this event, but opted to drop it with a busy Olympic schedule already in place. Oleksiak’s 2016 performance is an example of someone who made a big Trials drop to make the team, but still she wasn’t close to being seeded in the 20th-range.
Bonus: 2019 Canadian World Championship Team
Men
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Josiah Binnema | 100 m butterfly | 1 |
| Tristan Cote | 400 m individual medley | 2 |
| Mackenzie Darragh | 200 m butterfly | 1 |
| Richard Funk | 50 m breaststroke | 3 |
| 100 m breaststroke | 1 | |
| Yuri Kisil | 50 m freestyle | 1 |
| 100 m freestyle | 2 | |
| Gabe Mastromatteo | 200 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Alexander Pratt | 200 m freestyle | 2 |
| Cole Pratt | 200 m backstroke | 4 |
| 200 m individual medley | 6 | |
| Markus Thormeyer | 100 m freestyle | 1 |
| 100 m backstroke | 1 | |
| 200 m backstroke | 1 | |
| Markus Thormeyer |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
1 |
| Yuri Kisil | 2 | |
| William Pisani | 4 | |
| Carson Olafson | 7 | |
| Markus Thormeyer |
4 × 200 m freestyle relay
|
1 |
| Alexander Pratt | 2 | |
| Jeremy Bagshaw | 3 | |
| Carson Olafson | 4 | |
| Markus Thormeyer |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
1 |
| Richard Funk | 1 | |
| Joshua Liendo | 7 | |
| Yuri Kisil | 2 |
Women
| Athlete | Event | Seed Going Into Trials |
| Maggie MacNeil | 50 m butterfly | 3 |
| 100 m butterfly | 3 | |
| Kylie Masse | 100 m backstroke | 1 |
| 200 m backstroke | 1 | |
| Emma O’Croinin | 400 m freestyle | 5 |
| 1500 m freestyle | 2 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | 50 m butterfly | 1 |
| 100 m freestyle | 3 | |
| 200 m freestyle | 5 | |
| Emily Overholt | 400 m individual medley | 3 |
| Mackenzie Padington | 400 m freestyle | 2 |
| 800 m freestyle | 1 | |
| Sydney Pickrem | 200 m breaststroke | 3 |
| 200 m individual medley | 1 | |
| 400 m individual medley | 4 | |
| Taylor Ruck | 100 m freestyle | 1 |
| 200 m freestyle | 1 | |
| 200 m backstroke | 2 | |
| Kayla Sanchez | 50 m freestyle | 2 |
| Kierra Smith | 100 m breaststroke | 1 |
| Rebecca Smith | 100 m butterfly | 2 |
| Kelsey Wog | 200 m breaststroke | 2 |
| Kayla Sanchez |
4 × 100 m freestyle relay
|
2 |
| Taylor Ruck | 1 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | 3 | |
| Maggie MacNeil | 9 | |
| Rebecca Smith* | 5 | |
| Kayla Sanchez |
4 × 200 m freestyle relay
|
2 |
| Taylor Ruck | 1 | |
| Emily Overholt | 3 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | 5 | |
| Rebecca Smith* | 4 | |
| Emma O’Croinin* | 13 | |
| Kylie Masse |
4 × 100 m medley relay
|
1 |
| Sydney Pickrem | 1 | |
| Maggie MacNeil | 3 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | 3 | |
| Kierra Smith* | 1 | |
| Rebecca Smith* | 2 | |
| Taylor Ruck* | 1 |
2019’s risers were highlighted by youngsters Cole Pratt and Emma O’Croinin, who ranked sixth and fifth respectively coming in to qualify individually. O’Croinin’s 13th seed in the 200 free before qualifying for the relay is particularly notable.
I really feel sad for kids that have been swimming since they were 8 and 7 times a week for the last 6 years and all those parents that drove these kids to the pool 7 days a week and to meets and hotels and officiating? “NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!”. Really?!?!
You have to think that Swim Canada is being totally tone deaf. The most they should have said is “this is how we see things playing out but we will give every swimmer every single chance possible if things improve”. Things are going to improve and Swim Canada is going to look stupid and incompetent.
This has really caused me to lose faith in Swim Canada. What are they… Read more »
How is considering the health and safety of swimmers, coaches, officials, parents, and team managers not acting in the best interests of swimmers?
I do not know how to respond to your comment.
100 ways to do proper trials and take care of everyones health
Like what?
well said
During a worldwide pandemic SNC has wisely limited Trials to those who are realistic contenders to make the Olympic team ( FINA A & top 2 ind event). We are less than 4 mths out of trials and decision needed to be made now.
Very likely that USA swimming will have a similar model but likely top 24 (3 heats) as have more depth, but with prelims & finals.
It’s simple, Covid risk is reduced by fewer athletes gathering for trials. To have a multiple location remote trials is catering to “participation” vs actual contenders and also impairs the integrity of the trials as not everyone is under 1 roof. Covid has been tough in so many ways… Read more »
Hopeful, you’re exactly right!
Nonsense
It’s the reality of any elite level sport right now across the world. All countries reducing # of participants. I feel extremely disappointed for those who miss out on the experience of a trials, but like so many things COVID has robbed many of this, not SNC. Trials during a pandemic is only about picking Olympic team, not an experience. US is on same page they will issue in new year as trials in June.
You see you pointed out some of yours and Swim Canada’s nonsense: “trials in June”. That is just one aspect of the complete idiocy of Swim Canada.
I have yet to hear: “but we will give every swimmer every single chance possible if things improve” Without that, Swim Canada cannot claim to be looking after the best interests of swimmers and needs to be dismantled.
Again pushing it to June is more about participation vs potential Olympic contenders. SNC is sticking to original plan where the swimmers can ramp up training after trials in April – this remains their philosophy to have best podium potential at Olympics and mirrors many other countries and has seemed to work very well for Canada in 2016 and since then for major games. Unfortunately due to Covid you will not hear trials in Canada (or likely any country) being about every swimmer this time around as we are in a pandemic. It’s sucks. But it’s reality.
Yes there is some value in participation But that is not the point. The opportunity needs to be there if available and it is not. Swim Canada needs to take its hands off the levers and come out from behind the curtain and provide a reasonable opportunity if it arises. It is not indicating that it will.
Those that are likely going do not need to “ramp up” their training, their training is already planned. Those that make the team unexpectedly should be accommodated. To suggest otherwise is nonsense.
This is all particularly true since many swimmers may not have raced long course for a long time, perhaps since summer of 2019. That will be almost 2 years prior to… Read more »
It’s a pandemic. Canada is not alone at all in limiting and reducing # swimmers at Trials. Beyond rare for any swimmer outside of top 20 to make a Fina A time. There were Lcm opportunities up to March 2020 and if SNC keeps qualifying period open slots will just be taken by US swimmers with a canadian passports as they are the only ones who are still competing.
There is a huge difference in training approach for a high level swimmer having 3mths vs a few weeks after trials before actual Olympic Games. And yes it appears that SNC believes a 3mth gap is remains best in order for team Canada to reach full podium potential at games, plan training camps, etc.
We are in a global pandemic. Reducing participants at Trials for health and safety is top priority. Trials can not be planned around potential unlikely “exceptions”. It’s beyond sad and frustrating but it’s the right call.
Of course other countries are competing in addition to US. Canada is approaching Covid differently than US and most are thankful. Sounds like your issue should be with our government vs SNC. We are in a pandemic. Our numbers are higher than ever. Trials will not be run based on participation or rare exceptions, nor should it be. I fully support selecting the top 20 swimmers taking a shot at making the team and will be cheering loudly for all of them!
Thanks for all this work. I imagine there would be a similar finding in any nations Olympic Trials…..bolters in swimming are very rare, dramatic improvements don’t just suddenly happen.
Doing this for the Olympics themselves would be interesting (the rankings of the medalists coming into the Games).There is always a possibility if COVID doesn’t improve they may limit entrants to say 16 in each event.
Not sudden though it’s been limited competition for like 18 months by trials.
Younger female swimmers especially can improve from great age groupers to world class in 18 months.
far from sudden…. July 2019 to April 2021 is enormous amounts of training!!!!!!!!!!!!!! sudden??
Offtopic, but isnt the sub 20 speedo stream supposed to start now? I cant see it
I very much appreciate this analysis but as pointed out by some commenters on the last Canadian trials article (and something I myself hadn’t thought about) this trials is fundamentally different because few if any of the swimmers in the mix for the team had the opportunity to do a rested long course meet since July/August 2019. This means Canada is effectively only inviting swimmers who rank in the top 20 as of nineteen months prior to the trials.
So to make this analysis more interesting / relevant to the current trials situation, could you look at where athletes were ranked in Canada as of 19 months prior to each of these trials (E.g. as of August 2010 for… Read more »
That would make for some interesting statistics particularly amongst some of the anomalies that you see on the 2019 World’s team, the young up and comers: Liendo, Mastromatteo, O’Cronin and Pratt. If you added Knox in on the list (FINA A 200IM done at 2019 World JR) you’d be looking at their results from the summer of 2017 (Canada Games for all of them) where they were all 14/15 years-old. Knox, Liendo, Mastromatteo, O’Cronin and Pratt were in the top-20 inside some of their events (but not all).
I looked it up and if this happened for the 2016 trials Penny would have been 20th in 100 free if you had skipped the 2015 season and were going off of the summer of 2014
Well said!