We’ve gone through every part of the swimming competition at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Race-by-race predictions, Vegas predictions, the data.
But zooming out to 10,000 feet, the question on everyone’s mind after last year’s World Championships is this: “who will win the swimming medals table at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?”
Well, according to our staff, working to varying degrees of independence and never considering a holistic view, thinks it will be Australia again. You’ll recall that Australia, by gold-silver-bronze sort, won the medals table at the 2023 World Championships: their first time doing so since 2001.
Winning the swimming medals table at the Olympics would break an even longer streak: the US has won every medals table in swimming at the Olympics since the 1980 boycott year. Even when they stumble in between the Olympiads, they always rally for the Olympics.
Notwithstanding the sum of the individual picks, I still think the U.S. will win the medals table. Part of that is depth. In races where it feels like the favorite is most likely to stumble, like maybe if Gretchen Walsh can’t repeat her 100 fly from the Olympic Trials, the U.S. more often has a “second option,” in that case Torri Huske, to pick up the torch.
It feels like fewer of the Australian top picks are safe bets too. Cam McEvoy, Kyle Chalmers, and Sam Short feel more vulnerable, collectively, than Caeleb Dressel in the 100 fly and Regan Smith in the 100 back, for example.
Ryan Murphy jumping up to win the 100 back or Kate Douglass taking the 200 IM, or the US mixed medley beating China, feel more likely than, say, Elizabeth Dekkers jumping up to win the 200 fly or Lani Pallister jumping up to win the 800 free. If Ariarne Titmus were to steal a gold in the 800 free from Katie Ledecky, which feels more within the realm of reason than it has in a decade, that would shift the tide.
So ultimately, while this is Australia’s medal table to lose, I think the U.S. has higher upside. It’s going to be very, very close either way. From a team perspective, the battle is going to be a barn-burner.
Final SwimSwam Event Preview Index Medals Table
| Nation | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| Australia | 11 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| USA | 10 | 14 | 9 | 33 |
| China | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| France | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Canada | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Great Britain | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Italy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Hungary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sweden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Romania | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Germany | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Ireland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Poland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| South Korea | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Hong Kong | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Looks like Ledecky is back to not mentioning Titmus’ name in interviews. She mentioned the three of us and she mentioned Summer by name but not Titmus. Still find it weird.
US has more chances to win overall, but they also have more events where the ROTW can take gold from them.
This has been the issue since 2022, if Australia maximises their chances, America must do so as well or they will lose out with the more marginal events.
On the weight of everything, I slightly favour Australia, but it will be far closer than Fukuoka. Day 1 is absolutely vital to how the rest of the meet plays out, if the US men lose the relay, they are basically lost from the start assuming Australia go 3/4.
USA Swimming has the bulletin board material for that added motivation:
Words have meaning and I am going to pick a fight over semantics.
“Medal table” implies total medals. Why would you assume Medal table should be sorted by gold? Why not silver or bronze? Logically it would make just as much sense of we were to choose only one. But it makes exactly zero sense to assume it is specifying one kind of medal.
If we called it the “Gold medal table” then you should rank by golds.
People assume the medal table should be sorted by gold because the IOC sorts it by gold and World Aquatics sorts it by gold and 99% of countries in the world sort it by gold. Hope that helps!
And yet only people from one country are confused.
lol – the medal tally has always been ranked by ‘gold first’. Unless you are NBC.
To be fair this is an American website and NBC is the official US broadcaster so it would not be out of the question for medal table to refer to total medals here
Even NBC doesn’t always sort a medal table by total medals.
Gold medals are worth more than silver, because they are given to the winner of the event. So of course you sort a medal table by who wins the most gold.
Actually, semantically ‘medal table’ neither implies nor infers any of that.
It just refers to a listing in table format of medals won by individuals or teams. Or it could literally mean a piece of furniture with 3 or 4 legs that has a flat top surface on which medals are placed. Like a ‘coffee table’.
But in this context specifically it refers to a listing of medals won in swimming, and as we understand it, with a breakdown by type of medal.
Sometimes, medal tables include a ‘total’s’ column. Sometimes they may not.
Medal tables can be sorted by any single column in that table (and any bit of data can be included) – alphabetically by country, by… Read more »
The olympics is finally upon us, and there is bound to be a few feel good stories. Some athletes will win their countries first ever medals and become heroes. These medals may not necessarily be gold, but that won’t take away the significance of their achievements.
Tend to think it will be the other way round although it has to be said
Think both are vulnerable to golds being snatched; maybe a few by their main rival but moreso by third parties
IF AUS 3 big female guns fire then they should get to around 6-7 golds but its hard to see more than 1-2 from the significantly weaker men’s side.
If I had to go on a limb, predictions for the men’s relays:
Men’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay
G – USA, S – GBR, B – AUS
Men’s 4 x 200 meter freestyle relay
G – GBR, S – USA, B – CHN
Men’s 4 x 100 meter medley relay
G – USA, S – CHN, B – too close to call
I think the Aussies have a decent advantage in “done-deal” golds, with the W 200 free, W 400 free, W 4×100 free, and W 4×200 free being locks. The US have the W 1500 free and that’s probably it? I think Ledecky’s 800 is close to a lock but there’s definitely reason to believe Titmus could win.
From there, a lot of the golds are up for grabs. I think the US has far more events where if they’re not winning gold they’re not going to be far off, while the Aussies have less of those, but in terms of stone-cold locks the Aussies definitely have more.
W200FR/W4X200 & prob W4X100 – Yes Would class W400 as clear favourite but no lock
Would class Ledecky in W800 as secure if not more so than Titmus in W400. Would add W1500 & W4XW4XMED as US locks
Therefore I have it line-ball re “locks”. DO fully agree that, with US’s greater talent spread across both sides, they have a wider scope for both gold & medal opportunities.
Betfair odds for men’s 4*100 free US 1.22, odds for women’s 4*100 free relay Australia 1.21. So basically the same price, they are as big favs in men’s relay as Aussies are in women’s.
I think USA is much more likely to top the medal table than Australia.
I give USA maybe 90%, Australia 9% and China 1% (they have enough chances to get 7-8 golds which could beat USA and AUS under the right circumstances).
It all comes down to the number of chances. Yes, if the favourite wins every event and there are no upsets, Australia should win. But as usual, USA has way more medal contenders waiting in the wings so is much more likely to pick up unexpected medals.
In saying that, I don’t agree that Regan is a safer bet to win the 100 back or Dressel 100 fly than Cam is to win the 50 free.
If you look at bookies odds than US favored in more events than Australia also. But Aussies have more “big favorites”, odds 1.5 or less.
The US will win by a few Golds…I dont think even Australians like myself believe we will pull off the win….
Agree, I’m a proud Australian but not delulu 🙏
I’m thinking we can win. Kaylee winning 2-3 gold prevents an American from winning and that makes a big difference. Fingers crossed.
Kaylee will get the job done. No problem.
Speak for yourself.
It may be a big ask for Australia to top the table. But there is a real chance it could happen. Australia need to get off to a flying start on night 1. So by 6.15 am (AEST) tomorrow we’ll know if we are still in the race.
Lol I agree. If Aus wins 3/3 and someone upsets USA men then we’re in with a chance. Any missteps and it’s already over before day 2.