Michael Phelps has been vulnerable in the 200 fly this year. In fact, he’s lost the race the last three times he’s swum it. This is well-documented and has been well-discussed. We haven’t seen his progress in the 200 since his return from a three-week refocus at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, but after seeing his world-leading 100 fly in Canada, he certainly appears to be on the right track.
Generally, when Phelps is on the right track, that spells trouble for the rest of the world.
But these days, Japan’s Takeshi Matsuda has looked very strong. In 2010, he finished the season with the best time in the world, and thus far in 2011 has been almost that fast again with a 1:54.12 to again lead the world by more than half-a-second.
Phelps’ best time this season, on the other hand, is 1:55.34, though it would be a fool’s errand to predict that he’s not going to be at least a 1:53 at World’s.
But will that be enough? This race shapes up to be a very tight final, and Matusda should range solidly into the 1:53-range as well. But here’s where the difference maker for Matsuda might be. After Japanese Nationals in April, Matsuda entirely stopped training in the freestyle events (where he actually ranks 7th in the world in the 400).
As you can see from the video below, Matsuda relies on a lightning-quick recovery to keep pace with the best in the world. He has to, because he’s significantly shorter than Phelps (just over 6 feet tall, compared to Phelps’ 6’4).
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4AtwdPO8qM[/youtube]
Matsuda will also be among the fastest closers in the field. But from the instant he leaves the blocks, he’s already at a disadvantage because of Phelps’ incredible start and underwater work. That’s why Phelps has been at-or-near the front of the field at the 100 meter mark even in the three races he’s lost this year.
Phelps will have to use Chinese/Club Wolverine swimmer Wu Peng-one of the few swimmers to beat Michael Phelps twice in this same race- as a rabbit to make sure he’s gone out hard enough. This year, unlike in the past, Peng has changed his approach to the 200 fly, and has been taking his races out very hard. This will help Phelps time his race out, as he knows that he needs to get a lead on Matsuda.
I still picked Phelps to win this race, but Matsuda’s performance the past two years, as well as his narrowed focus entirely on this race, indicates that he’s very capable of pulling a monster upset.
Anyhow back to JAPAN.
The girls won the Football World Cup.
That is massive . They got the Momentum.
is it possible to recent a ban that say, is effective September 1 to whenever–still allowing him to compete next week (still highly controversial)
I don’t think so. The odds are greater that they’d make it a retroactive ban, and simply erase all of his results from the Paris Open (which would be tantamount to a fine, I suppose). Off the top of my head, I can’t think of a case where they haven’t tacked on a “nullify all results from the time of the positive test.”
JAG,
i am saying again: each doping case is distinct, even for the same substance!
Daynara Paula got 6 months for Furosemide.Her urine was diluted, and there was EFFECTIVENESS in the diuretic effects of substance.
Cielo will not be punished by doping.He will be punished by NEGLIGENCE.
Anastasia Ivanova – 2007 ?
Said that her grandma may have given he something with the substance in it, Quite a possibility as a lot of Russians live with Babushka who may have given her a compound from the local Apothecary. Babushkas are all Soviet era & have their own folk medicines ..
Not really different from Cielo’s story at the compounding pharmacy.
A backdated ban of 2 months is pretty useless ..
JAG, did the russian girl blame it on supplement contamination? I don’t think she did.
Was it russian or kazakshtan? I think there was a kazakhstan girl in 2000 who was banned for 4 years for furosemide.
CAS WILL give a ban. The question is: how long, and whether it is applied retroactive/backdated.
If it’s only 2 months and backdated, Cielo can still swim Shanghai.
If Cielo swims the Russian gal who got 2 years for an out of comp 9I think ) furesamide positive can surely sue the pants off FINA.
However Russians have not the western legal ‘expertise ‘ to do this.
Thats what i thought, he might be wrong but if he is not, they ARE waiting for Cielo’s case to conclude and the verdict! Lets cross our fingers and hope they come out soon!
If thats the case, they might as well wait for Cielo…..