Women’s Swimulator Snapshot: Virginia Holds 82 Point Lead Over Texas

As we said yesterday when we took a look at the men’s Swimulator projections, we don’t know what the next two months are going to look like for swimming (or much of anything else). However, we’re in between two weekends that constitute the fullest slate of college swimming meets in what feels like a very very long time. So let’s live in the moment, celebrate the fast swimming we’ve seen, and take at what our newly-updated Swimulator projections show here in mid-January.

• Click here to experiment with Swimulator data on your own.

Before we show you the results, a few reminders and caveats:

1. The Swimulator pulls in data from USA Swimming’s NCAA results database. So, if meet results aren’t updated there, they won’t be included in the Swimulator rankings, either. It looks like a few of last weekend’s Big Ten meets haven’t made it in yet, for example.
2. You can tweak the settings to the Swimulator uses to determine rankings. For instance, in the rankings below, we’re using season top times, instead of average times.
3. No, we don’t really expect the current Swimulator rankings to wholly accurately reflect what the NCAA Championships will look like. We’re well aware that most Pac-12 teams have had very limited, if any, competition so far this season, while the ACC and SEC have been racing more regularly.
4. Finally, the projected scores only take into account swimming events, not diving, so keep that in mind when looking at teams who regularly score a good chunk of points in the diving events.

As of the moment, the Virginia Cavaliers top the Swimulator projections, just as they topped our first round of power rankings in December. UVA is led by sophomore Kate Douglass, who currently is projected to score a perfect 60 points, as she has the fastest times in the country in three events: the 200 IM, the 100 fly, and the 100 breast. Teammate Paige Madden is close behind with 57 projected points; she leads the nation in the 200 and the 500 free, and has the 2nd-fastest time in the 1650.

The Texas Longhorns are currently projected to score the 2nd-most points, thanks to a blistering fall invite. Longhorn women are ranked first in the nation in the 200 fly (Olivia Bray), 100/200 breast (Anna Elendt), and the 400 medley relay.

With limited opportunities for racing, other teams that we expect to be the in the NCAA title hunt in March, such as Cal, Michigan, and Stanford, haven’t had many chances to rack up the projected points, so watch for them to rocket up these projections over the next few weeks and through conference championships.

Once again, these are not predictions about what actually will happen come March, but rather a quick snapshot to show how things look at the moment. Without further ado, here’s how those rankings look currently, along with a reminder of where we ranked each team in our first (and so far, only) round of power rankings early last month.