Each summer, college swimming fans look forward to recruiting – the lifeblood of any NCAA swim program. Since 2012, we’ve been ranking down the top NCAA prospects in the nation from each recruiting class. But sports are inherently unpredictable, and even the most sure-fire prospect can go awry or completely change their role over four years.
As we do each year, we’ll look back at the high school class of 2019, which just finished four years of college eligibility this spring.
First, a few notes:
- Most of the data we’re tracking here deals with NCAA scoring. Obviously, some swimmers are great assets for their teams in dual meets and conference competition without ever being national factors. While we don’t discount the impact of those types of swimmers, the difference in competition between various teams’ dual meet schedules and conference meets makes NCAA scoring the best “apples to apples” comparisons between swimmers.
- Relays are another point of contention, as a swimmer in a strong program has more opportunity for NCAA relays, though they also have more competition for those relay spots. We’ve left relay results out of the data below, except where specifically indicated. That, too, gives us a more fair comparison between athletes.
- We don’t rank diving recruits, but we have started to track individual diving scoring, which is helpful in determining how much of an impact a diver is likely to have on NCAA finish.
- We did our best to scour NCAA results over the past four-plus years, but it’s certainly possible we made a mistake in compiling our data. If you spot an error, please respectfully let us know in the comment section so we can update our work!
2023 Note: Due to swimmers being granted an extra year of eligibility after the 2020 NCAA cancelation, some of these athletes may still have years of scoring still to come.
We only include domestic recruits in our recruit rankings, as it’s often harder to predict if and when an international recruit will join the NCAA, and which class they should be ranked with. However, we’ve gone back through and tallied up all individual scorers that roughly fit into this class – international and domestic.
REVISITING OUR TOP 20
Check out this post for our analysis of the top 20 recruits in the high school class of 2019. This class was just the second in which we did a re-rank for the swimmers when they were high school seniors (previously the final rankings were done during their junior years only). Since the re-rank gives us the best gauge of where the athletes were coming into the NCAA, and therefore we get a better idea of who improved the most during their time in college, we’re using the re-ranked top-20 rather than the original rankings from their junior seasons.
Here’s a look at our top 10 recruits, plus how many individual points they scored at NCAAs in each of their four years:
Note: we’ve made an effort to put a dash (–) in a season in which an athlete didn’t compete (or was cut short due to injury) rather than “no invite”. If you see an error please let us know in the comments.
Rank | Name | College Team | Total NCAA Points | 2020 NCAA Points | 2021 NCAA Points | 2022 NCAA Points | 2023 NCAA Points |
2020 NCAA Psych Sheet Points
|
1 | Brendan Burns | Indiana | 121 | — | 29 | 46 | 46 | 17.5 |
2 | Jake Foster | Texas | 86 | — | 28 | 30 | 28 | 10 |
3 | Jack Walker | Virginia | 0 | — | 0 | – | – | 7 |
4 | Caspar Corbeau | Texas | 99 | — | 30 | 34 | 35 | 23 |
5 | Jack Dolan | Arizona State | 28 | — | redshirt | 3 | 25 | 3 |
6 | Ross Dant | NC State | 83 | — | 27 | 27 | 29 | 14 |
7 | Jack Wright | Virginia | 0 | — | no invite | 0 (relay-only) | 0 (relay-only) | |
8 | Noah Bowers | NC State | 13 | — | 0 | 0 | 13 | |
9 | Peter Larson | Texas | 11 | — | 11 | 0 | 0 | |
10 | Ethan Harder | Texas | 0 | — | scratch | scratch | no invite | |
11 | AJ Pouch | Virginia Tech | 14 | — | 6 | 8 | 0 | |
12 | Jason Louser | Cal | 43 | — | — | 16 | 27 | 11 |
13 | Liam Bell | Alabama/Cal | 42 | — | scratch | 25 | 17 | 14 |
14 | Hunter Tapp | NC State | 6 | — | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
15 | Noah Henderson | NC State | 14 | — | 0 | 7 | 7 | |
16 | Jonah Cooper | Ohio State | 0 | — | – | – | – | |
17 | Will Myhre | Iowa/Wisconsin | 0 | — | scratch | 0 | 0 | |
18 | Dillon Downing | Georgia | 17 | — | 16 | 1 | 0 | |
19 | Max Saunders | USC | 0 | — | no invite | 0 (relay-only) | no invite | |
20 | Sean Conway | Virginia | 0 | — | 0 | no invite | no invite | |
HM | Cason Wilburn | Notre Dame | 0 | — | no invite | 0 (relay-only) | 0 (relay-only) | |
HM | Shane Blinkman | Stanford | 0 | — | 0 | no invite | no invite | |
HM | Luke Thornbrue | Notre Dame | 0 | — | no invite | no invite | – | |
HM | Zach Hils | Georgia | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
HM | River Wright | Michigan | 8 | — | 8 | no invite | – | |
HM | Derek Maas | Alabama | 30 | — | 12 | 18 | 7 |
The Hits:
- Top-ranked Brendan Burns certainly lived up to the billing for Indiana, scoring 46 points in back-to-back seasons and amassing 121 over his three NCAA appearances—good for second in the class overall and first among ranked recruits by 22. Burns won the national title in the 200 fly as a sophomore, and followed up this past season by earning an upset victory in the 100 back while adding a runner-up showing in the 200 fly. He was a driving force behind’s Indiana fourth-place finish at NCAAs in 2023.
- #2 recruit Jake Foster was a reliable contributor for the Texas Longhorns in all three championships, scoring 28/30/28 for a total of 86 points. Foster scored in all nine individual events in which he raced in at NCAAs, earning back-to-back fifth-place finishes in the 400 IM in 2021 and 2022 and then securing top-eight finishes in the medley events this past season. As a senior, Foster notably made the ‘A’ final in the 200 IM (0.12), 400 IM (0.05) and the ‘B’ final of the 200 breast (0.13) by a combined three-tenths of a second. The point bumps he earned ultimately proved crucial as his Longhorn team held off Burns’ Hoosiers to place third at NCAAs.
- Another consistent scorer for Texas was Caspar Corbeau, who represents the Netherlands internationally but grew up in the U.S. club system. Corbeau scored 30+ points in all three NCAA appearances, including a runner-up finish in the 200 breast this past season, and was a key contributor for Texas on both free and medley relays.
- NC State’s Ross Dant put up near-identical point totals to Foster, having placed in the top three of 1650 free every year. Dant was third in both 2021 and 2022, and then had a memorable swim from the early heats this past season to ultimately take second to teammate Will Gallant.
- Cal’s Jason Louser was absent from championship season in 2021, missing both Pac-12s and NCAAs, but has put up double-digit points the last two seasons to help the Bears win consecutive team titles. As a senior, Louser made the first two ‘A’ finals of his career, placing fifth in the 400 IM and sixth in the 200 breast.
- A similar scenario goes for Louser’s teammate Liam Bell, who scratched the 2021 NCAAs while with Alabama and then transferred to Cal. Bell placed third in the 100 breast last year and then placed sixth in 2023 while also scoring in the 50 free, scoring 42 points across two NCAA appearances.
The Misses:
- Third-ranked Jack Walker (Virginia) qualified for NCAAs in his freshman and sophomore seasons, and was seeded to score in 2020 before the cancelation, but retired during the 2021-22 season.
- Another UVA recruit, #7 Jack Wright, was an ACC ‘A’ finalist in his first three seasons and has performed relay duties for the Cavaliers at three straight NCAAs, but never competed individually.
- Sean Conway also never scored, giving Virginia zero individual points despite having three swimmers ranked in the top 20.
- Texas’ Ethan Harder had some tough luck, as he was fast enough to qualify for NCAAs in each of his first three seasons (and close this year), but never competed as the Longhorns either didn’t enter him or scratched him due to roster numbers. His teammate Peter Larson only scored in one season, 2021, but was a member of the record-setting 800 free relay in 2023.
- Despite being a member of the U.S. National Team and representing the U.S. at the 2021 Short Course World Championships, NC State’s Hunter Tapp only scored in one event over three NCAA appearances, placing 11th in the 200 back last season.
- Ohio State’s Jonah Cooper never competed after the COVID pandemic, earning a pair of top-eight finishes at the 2020 Big Tens.
- Iowa commit/Wisconsin transfer Will Myhre typically had his best meet of the season at Big Tens and never scored at NCAAs. USC’s Max Saunders also didn’t scored individually, having never really improved much beyond his high school times.
OTHER IMPACTFUL RECRUITS IN THE HIGH SCHOOL CLASS OF 2019
Of course, not every contributor comes from our top 20 list. Some swimmers develop extremely well in college. Some swimmers slip under our radar, or don’t prove to be late bloomers once they hit the NCAA.
We dug through NCAA results to find the best American swimmers from this class to not appear on our top 20 list. Again, it’s not always easy to account for redshirt years, gap years or mistakes in an athlete’s listed class each season. So if we forgot anyone, please let us know in the comments.
DOMESTIC
Name | College Team | Total NCAA Points | 2020 NCAA Points | 2021 NCAA Points | 2022 NCAA Points | 2023 NCAA Points |
2020 NCAA Psych Sheet Points
|
Brooks Curry | LSU | 128.5 | — | 32 | 53 | 43.5 | 28 |
Ian Grum | Georgia | 54 | — | 19 | 7 | 28 | |
Jack Hoagland | Notre Dame | 53 | — | 27 | – | 26 | 28 |
Will Gallant | Indiana/NC State | 42 | — | – | 17 | 25 | 3 |
Alfonso Mestre | Florida | 40 | — | 3 | 19 | 18 | |
Alexander Colson | Arizona State | 24 | — | redshirt | 12 | 12 | |
Hunter Armstrong | West Virginia/Ohio State | 19 | — | 4 | 15 | pro | |
Matt Menke | Alabama | 17 | — | 5 | 12 | 0 | |
Aidan Stoffle | Auburn | 16 | — | 2 | 14 | ||
Kevin Houseman | Northwestern | 15.5 | — | 9 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.33 |
Colby Mefford | Cal | 14 | — | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
Julian Hill | Arizona State | 14 | — | redshirt | 1 | 13 | |
Andrew Gray | Arizona State | 12 | — | redshirt | 0 | 12 | |
Ben Patton | Missouri | 10.5 | — | 5 | 0 | 5.5 | |
Tyler Watson | Florida | 10 | — | 5 | 5 | ||
Kevin Vargas | Florida | 6 | — | 6 | scratch | ||
Sam Artmann | Texas | 5 | — | scratch | 5 | ||
Josh Fong | Virginia | 3 | — | 0 | 3 | ||
Jake Marcum | Indiana/Alabama | 2 | — | 2 | no invite | ||
Zhang Wen | Air Force | 2 | — | 0 | 2 | ||
Cam Peel | Michigan | 1 | — | 1 | 0 (relay-only) | 0 (relay-only) | |
Forest Webb | Virginia Tech | 1 | — | 1 | 0 (relay-only) | ||
Brennan Gravley | Florida | 0 | — | no invite | 5 | ||
Harry Homans | Georgia/USC | 0 | — | no invite | 1 |
Standouts:
- Emerging as the class’ top scorer as an unranked recruit, Brooks Curry‘s career at LSU has been nothing short of phenomenal, having broken out at the 2020 SEC Championships when he won the 100 freestyle as a freshman. Over three NCAA appearances, Curry was an ‘A’ finalist in eight of his nine individual events and picked up two national titles as a junior in the 50 and 100 free. His 128.5 points clears Burns for tops in the class, and is well over double the next-highest total from an unranked recruit.
- Ian Grum had a strong career at Georgia, highlighted by his fourth-place finish in the 200 back and sixth-place showing in the 400 IM this past season.
- Jack Hoagland missed last year’s NCAAs due to injury, but has placed fifth in the 1650 free in both of his NCAA appearances, scoring a total of 53 points. He was also seeded to score 28 in 2020.
- Will Gallant didn’t compete at NCAAs until his junior year, as after the 2020 meet was canceled, he announced he was transferring from Indiana to NC State midway through 2020-21. After placing second in the 1650 in 2022, Gallant went one better this past season, winning the national title in a best time of 14:28.94 while also scoring in the 500 free.
- Arizona State swimmers Alexander Colson, Andrew Gray and Julian Hill were all in the same boat as Gallant, with the Sun Devils redshirting the 2021 season. They combined to score 37 individual points this past season to help ASU place second in the team race.
- Hunter Armstrong is a clear standout in this group of athletes, but more so in long course meters, which is a primary reason why he turned pro after last season.
INTERNATIONAL
Name | College Team | Total NCAA Points | 2020 NCAA Points | 2021 NCAA Points | 2022 NCAA Points | 2023 NCAA Points |
2020 NCAA Psych Sheet Points
|
Eric Friese | Florida | 25 | — | 25 | 0 | 0 (relay-only) | |
Leon MacAlister | Stanford | 20 | — | 20 | 0 | ||
Andres Puente Bustamente | Texas A&M | 13 | — | 2 | 11 | 9 | |
Fabio Dalu | McKendree/Ohio State | 4 | — | 4 | no invite | ||
Peter Varjasi | Florida State | 2.5 | — | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Sebastian Somerset | Cal | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Abdelrahman Elaraby | Louisville | 1 | — | 0 | – | 1 | |
Federico Burdisso | Northwestern | 0 | — | 0 | – | 3 |
Standouts:
- After scoring 25 points individually in 2021, Eric Friese didn’t hit that same level in either of the next two seasons, but did contribute on three NCAA winning relays, including Florida’s 200 free relay in 2023 that broke Auburn’s 14-year-old super-suited NCAA and U.S. Open Record.
- Australian Leon MacAlister went from missing an NCAA invite in 2021 to scoring in two events last season, including a fifth-place finish in the 200 back. He narrowly missed scoring individually in 2023, but did contribute to Stanford’s medley relays that scored.
- Consistently a reliable scorer for Texas A&M at the SEC level, Andres Puente Bustamante broke through at NCAAs this past season by making the championship final in the 200 breast.
DIVING
Name | College Team | Total NCAA Points | 2020 NCAA Points | 2021 NCAA Points | 2022 NCAA Points |
2023 NCAA Points
|
Lyle Yost | Ohio State | 109.5 | — | 29 | 34 | 46.5 |
Leonardo Garcia | Missouri/Florida | 51.5 | — | 11 | 26 | 14.5 |
Maxwell Flory | Miami (FL) | 30 | — | 14 | 16 | |
Brodie Scapens | Miami (FL) | 26 | — | 26 | – | 0 |
Bjorn Markentin | Arizona | 19 | — | 18 | 1 | |
Victor Povzner | Texas A&M | 19 | — | 2 | 17 | |
Alexander Hart | UNC | 15 | — | 15 | ||
Emanuel Vazquez | South Carolina | 15 | — | 15 | ||
Luke McDivitt | Utah | 11 | — | 11 | 0 | |
Andrew Harness | Texas | 11 | — | 7 | 4 | |
Jake Butler | Minnesota | 3 | — | 3 | – | |
Carlo Lopez | Missouri | 2 | — | 2 | ||
Dylan Reed | Pitt | 1 | — | 1 |
Standouts:
- Ohio State’s Lyle Yost more than doubled up the rest of the divers in this class and ranks third overall, joining Curry and Burns with more than 100 points. Yost won the 1-meter event in 2023 while placing fifth on 3-meter and sixth on platform, and finished in scoring position in all nine of his NCAA entries. He was responsible for 41.5 percent of the Buckeyes’ points to help propel them to a 11th-place finish at the 2023 NCAAs.
- Leonardo Garcia transferred from Mizzou to Florida after his freshman year and contributed points in three straight seasons for the Gators, including a total of three top-eight finishes.
- Maxwell Flory was a main component in Miami (FL) finishing inside the top 25 (23rd) in the past two seasons despite having no swimmers. Another Hurricane, Brodie Scapens, scored 26 points in 2021 with two ‘A’ final appearances, and then sat out last year and placed 21st on 3-meter this past season.
ALL INDIVIDUAL SCORERS IN THE CLASS
(Ranked recruits are listed with their 2018 rank. International recruits are listed with “INTL” and unranked recruits with “NR.” Diving recruits are listed with “DIVE”)
FINAL RANK | 2019 RANK | Name | College Team | Total NCAA Points | 2020 NCAA Points | 2021 NCAA Points | 2022 NCAA Points |
2023 NCAA Points
|
2020 NCAA PSYCH SHEET POINTS |
1 | NR | Brooks Curry | LSU | 128.5 | — | 32 | 53 | 43.5 | 28 |
2 | 1 | Brendan Burns | Indiana | 121 | — | 29 | 46 | 46 | 17.5 |
3 | DIVE | Lyle Yost | Ohio State | 109.5 | — | 29 | 34 | 46.5 | |
4 | 4 | Caspar Corbeau | Texas | 99 | — | 30 | 34 | 35 | 23 |
5 | 2 | Jake Foster | Texas | 86 | — | 28 | 30 | 28 | 10 |
6 | 6 | Ross Dant | NC State | 83 | — | 27 | 27 | 29 | 14 |
7 | NR | Ian Grum | Georgia | 54 | — | 19 | 7 | 28 | |
8 | NR | Jack Hoagland | Notre Dame | 53 | — | 27 | – | 26 | 28 |
9 | DIVE | Leonardo Garcia | Missouri/Florida | 51.5 | — | 11 | 26 | 14.5 | |
10 | 12 | Jason Louser | Cal | 43 | — | — | 16 | 27 | 11 |
11 | 13 | Liam Bell | Alabama/Cal | 42 | — | 0 | 25 | 17 | 14 |
11 | NR | Will Gallant | Indiana/NC State | 42 | — | 17 | 25 | 3 | |
13 | INTL | Alfonso Mestre | Florida | 40 | — | 3 | 19 | 18 | |
14 | HM | Derek Maas | Alabama | 30 | — | 12 | 18 | 7 | |
14 | DIVE | Maxwell Flory | Miami (FL) | 30 | — | 14 | 16 | ||
16 | 5 | Jack Dolan | Arizona State | 28 | — | redshirt | 3 | 25 | 3 |
17 | DIVE | Brodie Scapens | Miami | 26 | — | 26 | – | 0 | |
18 | INTL | Eric Friese | Florida | 25 | — | 25 | 0 | 0 (relay-only) | |
19 | NR | Alexander Colson | Arizona State | 24 | — | 12 | 12 | ||
20 | INTL | Leon MacAlister | Stanford | 20 | — | 20 | 0 | ||
21 | NR | Hunter Armstrong | West Virginia/Ohio State | 19 | — | 4 | 15 | pro | |
21 | DIVE | Bjorn Markentin | Arizona | 19 | — | 18 | 1 | ||
21 | DIVE | Victor Povzner | Texas A&M | 19 | — | 2 | 17 | ||
24 | 18 | Dillon Downing | Georgia | 17 | — | 16 | 1 | 0 | |
24 | NR | Matt Menke | Alabama | 17 | — | 5 | 12 | 0 | |
26 | NR | Aidan Stoffle | Auburn | 16 | — | 2 | 14 | ||
27 | NR | Kevin Houseman | Northwestern | 15.5 | — | 9 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.33 |
28 | DIVE | Alexander Hart | UNC | 15 | — | 15 | |||
28 | DIVE | Emanuel Vazquez | South Carolina | 15 | — | 15 | |||
30 | 11 | AJ Pouch | Virginia Tech | 14 | — | 6 | 8 | 0 | |
30 | 15 | Noah Henderson | NC State | 14 | — | 0 | 7 | 7 | |
32 | NR | Colby Mefford | Cal | 14 | — | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
32 | NR | Julian Hill | Arizona State | 14 | — | redshirt | 1 | 13 | |
34 | 8 | Noah Bowers | NC State | 13 | — | 0 | 0 | 13 | |
34 | INTL | Andres Puente Bustamente | Texas A&M | 13 | — | 2 | 11 | 9 | |
36 | NR | Andrew Gray | Arizona State | 12 | — | redshirt | 0 | 12 | |
37 | 9 | Peter Larson | Texas | 11 | — | 11 | 0 | 0 | |
37 | DIVE | Luke McDivitt | Utah | 11 | — | 11 | 0 | ||
37 | DIVE | Andrew Harness | Texas | 11 | — | 7 | 4 | ||
40 | NR | Ben Patton | Missouri | 10.5 | — | 5 | 0 | 5.5 | |
41 | NR | Tyler Watson | Florida | 10 | — | 5 | 5 | ||
42 | HM | River Wright | Michigan | 8 | — | 8 | no invite | – | |
43 | 14 | Hunter Tapp | NC State | 6 | — | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
43 | NR | Kevin Vargas | Florida | 6 | — | 6 | scratch | ||
45 | NR | Sam Artmann | Texas | 5 | — | scratch | 5 | ||
46 | INTL | Fabio Dalu* | Ohio State (McKendree) | 4 | — | 4 | no invite | ||
47 | NR | Josh Fong | Virginia | 3 | — | 0 | 3 | ||
47 | DIVE | Jake Butler | Minnesota | 3 | — | 3 | – | ||
49 | INTL | Peter Varjasi | Florida State | 2.5 | — | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
50 | NR | Jake Marcum | Indiana/Alabama | 2 | — | 2 | no invite | ||
50 | NR | Zhang Wen | Air Force | 2 | — | 0 | 2 | ||
50 | DIVE | Carlo Lopez | Missouri | 2 | — | 2 | |||
53 | NR | Cam Peel | Michigan | 1 | — | 1 | 0 (relay-only) | 0 (relay-only) | |
53 | NR | Forest Webb | Virginia Tech | 1 | — | 1 | 0 (relay-only) | ||
53 | INTL | Sebastian Somerset | Cal | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
53 | INTL | Abdelrahman Elaraby | Louisville | 1 | — | 0 | – | 1 | |
53 | DIVE | Dylan Reed | Pitt | 1 | — | 1 | |||
58 | 3 | Jack Walker | Virginia | 0 | — | 0 | – | – | 7 |
59 | NR | Brennan Gravley | Florida | 0 | — | no invite | 5 | ||
60 | NR | Harry Homans | Georgia/USC | 0 | — | no invite | 1 | ||
61 | INTL | Federico Burdisso | Northwestern | 0 | — | 0 | – | 3 |
ARCHIVES: REVISITING RECRUIT RANKINGS
Analysis as of: | Spring 2023 | Spring 2022 | Spring 2021 | Spring 2020 | Spring 2019 | Spring 2018 | Spring 2017 |
Class of 2022 | After Freshman Year | ||||||
Class of 2021 | After Sophomore Year | ||||||
Class of 2020 | After Junior Year | After Sophomore Year | |||||
Class of 2019 | After Senior Year | After Junior Year | After Sophomore Year | ||||
Class of 2018 | After Senior Year | After Junior Year | After Sophomore Year |
After Freshman Year
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Class of 2017 | After Senior Year | After Junior Year | After Sophomore Year |
After Freshman Year
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Class of 2016 | After Senior Year |
After Junior Year
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Class of 2015 |
After Senior Year
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Class of 2014 |
After Senior Year
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Class of 2013 |
After Senior Year
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Does anyone have insight on why UVA men seem to show less improvement than the women? Is it just that they look bad in comparison to the exceptional women or is there more there?
If you’re a freestyle sprinter, it seems like you improve a lot at UVA.
But back/fly guys and 200-500 guys don’t do much. Maybe the style of training but I’m not sure.
After reviewing this I am not sure why any top ranked men would go to UVA. We will see how recent transfers fare next year.
I mean we all saw Connery’s 1:46 IM and 44 free at NCAA’s this year.
He went best times at ACCs in all his events though.
That’s a Connery problem, not a UVA problem…
Crazy thing is even just from an NCAA perspective (not taking into account his Olympic performance), Curry is under valued by this metric. He has insane relay value compared to other swimmers who are more 200 stroke / 4IM guys.
2 swimmers in this class going from unranked to Olympian is crazy
Armstrong’s 50 back SCY personal best at the end of high school was slower than the all time women’s best (22.60 vs 22.52) and 3 years later he was a WR holder in the long course version 💀
he got that magical dawg in him
the sheer potential lost due to covid makes my heart hurt.
Great article as usual Swim Swam!
Curious as to how Brooks Curry came in unranked? Did he simply have massive time drops at LSU?
Definitely more hits than misses, though, strong work!
his top times were 20.65/44.53/1:38.88 in the 50/100/200 free coming into college and he was 19.30/41.81/1:32.43 by the end of freshman year (at SECs, since NCAAs was canceled)
Agreed, great article. But, I see way more misses than hits. There appears to be a modest correlation between being ranked in high school and being successful in college.
I think it’s just hard to predict since men tend to improve more than women in college since they peak later. 7 out of the top 10 female swimmers in the class of 2019 ranking would’ve scored at 2018 NCAAs for example (which took place a month before the ranking), with Ivey making the A final in the 200 free and a couple others on the cusp, while in the male ranking, no one’s best time would’ve made any finals.
Even looking at the rerank compared to 2018 NCAAs again, there would’ve been 3 swimmers that scored with their PBs, with Dant and Burns sneaking into 16th in the 1650 free/200 fly and Bell placing 8th in the A… Read more »
We all think the same thing when reading this: don’t peak too early. But what does that mean in a practical sense? If you are coaching an elite 17 year old, do you hold something back? Of course not! The opportunities for a 1:36 freestyler and 1:34 freestyler coming out of HS are not the same. We all know the names of 4 or 5 age groupers coming up right now who are setting records and doing things that have never been done before. Sadly in 4-5 years we are going to look at a few of those names and think they peaked to early. That should bother all of us. The simple fact it the biggest inflection point in… Read more »
They need big times as sophomores in high school to get recruited early.
I completely disagree. There’s no way of knowing what your peak is until you look back and reflect. How could a high school coach look at his athlete and say “I’m not going to push you to your limit because it might mean you don’t improve past this limit…let’s save that for college”. That is utterly ridiculous.
There’s nothing guaranteed in life. I say you should push yourself and swim as fast as your limit NOW because who knows if your college program will be cut, someone will beat you out for scholarship, or there is a season-ending injury. You’ll look back and wonder what could have been.
I’m not sure we disagree. I wrote that a coach shouldn’t hold anything back. You gave good examples of uncertainties.
I might have misinterpreted some of what you said. I don’t think I’ll look back at Reece Whitley and think he peaked too early. He just peaked, plateaued. I think the phrasing “too early” insinuates he did it at the wrong time, and I don’t think there’s every a wrong time to peak when you look at your career as a whole. Of course if you look at it in segments, peaking at a dual meet rather than NCAAs is peaking too early…but to say someone who swam their best in at high school championships or freshman year NCAAs peaked too early is just wrong.
Everyone of these age group swimmers feels there’s more left in the tank, no elite athlete has ever finished a race and though, man, that was it – no way I could ever do better than that….just sometimes you end up not.
I agree. And there are a million of outside factors that play into your performance that are often forgotten: academics, social life, and general mental health.
I could say with relative proof I had my worst championship showing when I was taking my toughest course load and was overall very defeated and unhappy.
I think you need to take relay contributions into account somehow. A kid like Caspar was the BR leg on scoring relays all 3 years (4th lost to COVID) (including 1st in the 400 medley in 2021), and a key part of the free relays as well (including 1st in the 400 free in 2022). Not sure how to weight it, but it’s worth more than 0 points.
Slight wrinkle in taking relay scoring into account is that it depends on 3 other swimmers as well. Brooks Curry doesn’t get to benefit from relay points, not because he isn’t good enough to be on a relay, but because he doesn’t have a team around him to score highly. Caspar does. It wouldn’t really make sense to rank Caspar above Curry due to relay contributions, would it?
I’m not suggesting a rerank of swimmers, but that there possibly be a methodology for taking relay contributions into account.
Yes! I know 10 time all Americans that had 0 points. A 10 time All-American deserves recognition not bashed for 0 points.
Seems like that 10-time All American who never scored individually benefited greatly from going to a team that had very strong relays. Not bashing them – but they clearly also benefited from their surroundings. If the goal is to see how accurate the rankings were, I don’t think relay performance should be included at all. Potential to help relays should be included in the ranking criteria though for sure.
If you go a strong enough team for the relays to finish top 8, you have to be pretty fast to even make those relays!
What does it mean that the top 2 “other impactful” swimmers were both from Dynamo? Coincidence? Undervalued by SwimSwam?
Some might say that dynamo was holding them back tremendously.
or setting them up for tremendous success when it really matters
Undervalued more likely. Curry was a junior national-level sprinter who was on a massive improvement curve committing to a bottom SEC team. Grum had little-to-no relay potential, although he was a better swimmer in his events compared to some others.